Job Security of College Football Coaches; Introduction of "Win Gain"

In doing some research of college football coaches, I came across an interesting stat suggesting the "fireability" of a coach through four years. From 2000-2010, there were 113 coaches hired at BCS conference schools and at five additional schools; Notre Dame, BYU, Utah, TCU, and Hawaii. I looked at the first four years because that is typically the amount of time that a school will give a coach to prove their worth. In fact, to find how many times a university will give its coach four years, we reduced the 113 hires by the number of coaches who left for another job before their fourth year at a school, willingly resigned prior to their fourth year, and active coaches that have not or are not yet preparing for their fourth season at a school. The research indicated that 85 coaches did not leave for another job, are at least entering their fourth year at a school, or were fired before their fourth year. Of those 85 coaches, a total of 72 -- or 84.7 percent -- of their schools allowed them to enter their fourth year.

Stanford's Jim Harbaugh compiled the highest "net win gain."

Now, I came across a stat I'll call "win gain." The "win gain" takes a look at the records of five seasons, the first record is the record the departing coach left an incoming coach. The next four records were a coach's first four seasons. Some coaches did not last four years, or even three years. So a coach with four seasons would have had five seasons of comparison, a coach with three seasons would have had four years of comparison, a coach with two years at a school would have three years of comparison, and a coach with one year at a school would have two years of comparison. The net win gain suggests that in the first four years an incoming coach is measured against the final record of his predecessor and by the consistency and success of his own tenure. A coach can build a lot of goodwill in his first four years at a school, and based on the previous stat it shows that the majority of schools are willing to give coaches the four years to do that.

Let's take a look at former Minnesota coach Tim Brewster as an example. The departing coach, Glen Mason, left his final season at Minnesota with a 6-7 record. Brewster finished his first season with a 1-11 record, leaving him with a net "win gain" of -5. Ouch. Now, in Brewster's second season, his team finished with a 7-6 record, leaving him with a "win gain" from the previous year of +6. After two seasons, Brewster had a "net win gain" of +1. Brewster's third year he went 6-7, and then in his fourth year he was fired midseason after tumbling through a 1-6 record. Brewster coached into his fourth year, giving us five years of comparison that includes his predecessor's final season, which I will now list: 6-7, 1-11, 7-6, 6-7, 1-6. Brewster's net "win gain" in the four seasons he coached was -5.

Four important disclosures, 1) I did not include the records of interim coaches who only coached a few games of a season or one bowl game, but I did include the team's final record as the basis of comparison for the first season of an incoming coach, regardless of the fact that two coaches were in charge of a team during one season. (ex: Brewster went 1-6, then interim coach Jeff Horton went 2-3, so the comparison for incoming coach Jerry Kill will be a 3-9 season.) 2) Losses are irrelevant in this calculation. What we are looking for is an increase in wins, which is actually favorable to a coach since schools have now moved to a 12-game schedule, thus giving coaches more opportunities to win more games. 3) In my opinion, you can only really fairly use the net win gain after a coach's fourth season, though we did extend it for coaches that have coached through their third season for data-gathering purposes. 4) The data provided gives a snapshot of today entering the 2011 season, not of any trends from previous seasons.

What I found was startling. Though I'm certain that this calculation has many flaws, it indicated which coaches were likely to be fired after four seasons, and which ones were likely to keep their jobs. The overwhelming majority of coaches with a positive net win gain were retained, while a slight majority of coaches with a negative net win gain were fired. And coaches that had a neutral net win gain, or a 0, had a good chance of keeping their jobs. Now you would say that this makes sense, why would a school keep a losing coach? And it's obvious that a school would keep a winning coach. But that's not necessarily the case. For example, let's take a look at Vanderbilt coach Bobby Johnson who coached for eight seasons at Vanderbilt.

Since Johnson coached for eight seasons, we have five seasons of comparison for the net win gain, the first being the record left to him by his predecessor. Comparing his predecessor's last season with Johnson's first four years we have: 2-9, 2-10, 2-10, 2-9, 5-6. His net win gain after four seasons was +3. He kept his job and went on to coach four more years before retiring just before the 2010 season. You say, that's Vanderbilt, they don't really care about football there so Johnson was given more time to turn things around. Besides, he probably saved his job because he had a much better fourth year, which is absolutely true. The importance of a fourth year cannot be underestimated.

Rich Rodriguez could have benefitted from a 4th year

But let's go look at a school that really does care about its program, Michigan. Rich Rodriguez coached at Michigan for three seasons before being fired, all while showing progress in the win column in his three years there. Let's calculate his net win gain through three seasons: 9-4, 3-9, 5-7, 7-6, net win gain of -2. After three seasons Rodriguez was fired, and I would argue that had he won nine games in his third season, despite all the controversy surrounding him, he would have kept his job, or that he would have needed to win at least nine games in his fourth season if he had any shot of keeping his job. But Rodriguez did not win nine games in his third season, and he wasn't given the chance to enter a fourth season, but we do know where his net win gain stood after three seasons.

There were 82 coaches hired between 2000 and 2008 that have coached at least three seasons at their schools. Of those coaches, we could exclude Les Miles (OK State), Jim Harbaugh (Stanford), Mark Dantonio (Cincinnati), Brian Kelly (Cincinnati), and Bobby Petrino (Louisville) because they did not keep their jobs by accepting other jobs after either their third or fourth seasons at their school. But it is safe to assume that each one would have been back at their post if they had the desire to do so. Each one was extremely successful at their school and had a positive net win gain at the time they left their school. So we will stick with a sample of 82 coaches who coached at least three seasons at their school regardless of whether or not they left for another job.

Did Ty Willingham deserve a 4th year at Notre Dame?

Of the 46 coaches with a positive net win gain after either their third or fourth seasons, all have kept their jobs with the LONE exception of Ty Willingham during his tenure at Notre Dame. Keep in mind, this does not mean the coach was not fired after their fifth or subsequent seasons, but that the university allowed them to go beyond a fourth year. Coaches on this list include (Sylvester Croom (5 total seasons, 17-30 in first four seasons), Rich Brooks (7 total seasons, 17-30 first four seasons), Bobby Johnson (8 total seasons, 11-35 first four seasons), and Charlie Weis (5 total seasons, 29-21 first four seasons). Former North Carolina coach Butch Davis, though fired just before the beginning of his fifth season, does not count against this list because he was not fired for on-the-field performance. After three seasons at Notre Dame, Willingham's net win gain was +1, compared to Weis' +2 after four seasons.

Of the 13 coaches with a negative net win gain after four seasons of coaching, six kept their jobs [Les Miles (LSU), Larry Coker (Miami), Bill Doba (Washington St.), Dennis Erickson (Arizona St.), Dan Hawkins (Colorado), and Gary Patterson (TCU)]. It should be noted that Miles and Coker had won national titles within their tenures, and Erickson had won two national titles while at Miami. Doba and Hawkins were fired after their fifth seasons, Coker was fired after six seasons, Miles has been a controversial coach at LSU, Erickson should be considered on the hot seat entering this season, and Patterson has become one of the best coaches in the country.

Of the 12 coaches with a negative net win gain after three seasons of coaching, five kept their jobs [Dabo Swinney (Clemson), Paul Johnson (Georgia Tech), Paul Wulff (Washington St.), Rick Neuheisel (UCLA), and Greg McMackin (Hawaii)]. Those that lost their jobs are Ed Orgeron (Ole Miss.), Ron Zook (Florida), Gerry Di Nardo (Indiana), Bobby Williams (Michigan St.), Rich Rodriguez (Michigan), Buddy Teevens (Stanford), and Steve Kragthorpe (Louisville).


Of the 10 coaches with a neutral net win gain after four seasons, seven kept their jobs [Jim Tressel, Bret Bielema, Ralph Friedgen, John Bunting, Chan Gailey, Karl Dorrell, and Rich Rodriguez (West Virginia)] The three that were fired were Randy Shannon, Bill Lynch, and John L. Smith. 

There was one coach, Ron Prince (Kansas St.), with a neutral net win gain after three seasons, and he was fired after the 2008 season.

Which coaches had the highest net win gain after four seasons? Jim Harbaugh (Stanford) +11, Nick Saban (LSU) +10, Pete Carroll (USC) +8, Jeff Tedford (Cal) +7, Mark Dantonio (Michigan St.) +7, Sylvester Croom (Miss. St.) +6, Urban Meyer (Florida) +6, and Tom O'Brien (NC State) +6.

Which coaches had the lowest net win gain after three or four seasons? Steve Kragthorpe (Louisville) -8, Bobby Williams (Michigan St.) -7, Tim Brewster (Minnesota) -5, Buddy Teevens (Stanford) -5, Bill Doba (Washington St.) -4, Paul Wulff (Washington St.) -4, Bill Callahan (Nebraska) -4, Ted Roof (Duke) -4, Dan Hawkins (Colorado) -4, and very surprisingly Gary Patterson (TCU) -5. Patterson's negative win gain is the result of having an inaugural 6-6 season after a 10-2 season by Dennis Franchione, and following up an 11-2 season in his third year with a disastrous 5-6 season his fourth year.

Disturbingly, where 46 coaches had a positive net win gain after their third or fourth seasons, only Willingham was not retained. Of the 11 coaches with a neutral net win gain after three or four seasons, only four were not retained, including Miami's Shannon and Kansas State's Prince. All the coaches mentioned above are African-American. It's not to say that their firings didn't have some merit, but their firings are also contradictory to what the numbers say.

I totally made up this "win gain" stat and it may very well be that it has no significant bearing on anything, but it is interesting to see where the exceptions lie and where some trends emerge. I know for sure that I am not the first to think of the concept of a "win gain" or to apply such a concept over a prescribed amount of time (in this case 3 and 4 years). Perhaps athletic departments take this idea into account, whether subconsciously or not, when deciding the fate of their coach, or not. It'll be interesting to track this little stat as more coaches finish up their third and fourth seasons.

Butch Davis Could Have Been Pete Carroll

Will this be Butch Davis' last year at UNC?

As we head into another season of college football, I can't help but write about one of my favorite coaches - Butch Davis. Now at North Carolina, Davis has made North Carolina football relevant. Last year I was convinced he was going to take the Tar Heels to a BCS Bowl Game with the ridiculous talent assembled on the defensive side of the ball. But a scandal involving sports agents and impermissible benefits caused 13 North Carolina players to either be suspended for part of the season or to be ruled permanently ineligible. Three players that were supposed to contribute did not play a down of football because of the scandal, including first-round pick Robert Quinn, and second-rounders Greg Little and Marvin Austin. Star cornerback Kendric Burney was suspended for six games and fellow star safety Deunta Williams was suspended for four games.

In the 2011 NFL Draft, the Tar Heels had nine players drafted, the most out of the ACC. The Tar Heels had four defensive players taken in the first four rounds, and then another player, linebacker Quan Sturdivant taken in the sixth round. They were built for a title run in 2010, but that dream dismantled before it could even take shape. Butch was just making the program a national contender until the scandal broke out. It was bad for college football, the ACC, North Carolina, but most of all for Davis.

Davis is credited, as he should be, for building a Miami powerhouse that from 2000-2002 went 35-2, including a national championship that he did not get to celebrate in because he was no longer the Miami coach. I believe his biggest mistake came in leaving a Miami program after a successful 2000 season because he had so painstakingly built up Miami from some very serious probationary sanctions. Very few people could recruit and find talent like Davis, and the evidence is in what he did while at Miami where he was responsible for recruiting a stable of first-round picks.

For a man so well respected in his profession, the truth is that Davis, now entering his 11th season as a college head coach, has just one outright Big East title and one BCS Bowl victory under his belt. Had he not left Miami after 2000, he surely would have been the Pete Carroll of the east. He would have won the title in place of Larry Coker in 2001, and I am convinced that a Davis-coached Hurricane team would have defeated Ohio State in the 2003 BCS Championship Game. Then there's no telling where the Hurricanes would have gone with where Davis put the program. Let me put it this way, Davis was such a good recruiter and coach that even Larry Coker was able to win a national title, appear in another national title game, and win the Orange Bowl in succession in his first three years. In Coker's last three years, the Hurricanes went 9-3, 9-3, and 7-6. No knock against Coker, who I think was a very good offensive coordinator. He was the man he was supposed to be in his first three years, but when Davis' players were gone, you could see that Coker was not the recruiter or talent evaluator that Davis was.

Plus, where was Coker's next coaching job? At a totally new program in the FCS, or I-AA for those of you more familiar with that classification, for the University of Texas at San Antonio Roadrunners whose inaugural season will be this year. I think Coker is more suited for this kind of job at this point in his career. But all of the "what-ifs" are irrelevant.

The fact is that Davis left Miami to become head coach of the Cleveland Browns (seriously?) where he never won more than nine games in a season and made one playoff appearance in a little more than 3 1/2 seasons. By the time he resigned midseason in 2004, he had gone a dismal 24-35, including a loss in the playoffs. He resurfaced in the college ranks in 2007 with North Carolina, and after an understandable 4-8 rebuilding year in his first season, Davis has managed to make the Tar Heel football brand respectable once again. But in his last three seasons the Tar Heels have remained stagnant, going 8-5 each year. Last year seemed like the breakout year, but the scandal left his team in pieces and Davis' job on the line.

Davis is one of my favorite coaches because he can recruit and evaluate talent unlike any other coach. He's shown he is capable of taking a program from the depths of probation to the very top of college football like he did with Miami, and that he can even take a school like North Carolina and stock it with NFL talent. But many times careers are built on the right timing. Just look at Coker and Davis. Coker can wear a national title ring, and Davis can wear a Big East conference title ring. In some instances Davis is to blame for possibly making the wrong career choice, and at other times he's been blindsided by scandal. Now Davis may end up out of a job if he is found to have been negligent in the sports-agent scandal, and pull North Carolina into its own dark probationary period. He may never realize the full potential of what he has built at North Carolina, and it wouldn't surprise me if he thinks, as Yogi Berra once said, "It's deja vu all over again."