Coaches on the Hot Seat Using Win Gain Differential

Earlier this summer I introduced a stat called the win gain. Essentially, it takes a look at a coach's first four years as well as the last year of his predecessor. For instance, in order to calculate Urban Meyer's win gain at Florida, we would take the Gators' record in Ron Zook's last season, and then we would look at the total wins in each of Meyer's first four seasons. Zook's final season yielded a 7-6 season, after which Meyer was able to reel off 9-3, 13-1, 9-4, and 13-1 seasons in his first four years. After four seasons, Meyer had a positive win gain of 6 - a very good number.

The hottest seat in America belongs to WSU's Paul Wulff.

In a previous post, I established that a positive win gain of any sort almost automatically insured a coach would keep their job for at least another season. A neutral win gain and coaches were still likely to keep their jobs, and a negative win gain after four years meant that a coach was likely to lose their job.

Which coaches entering their fourth year in a BCS conference are on the hot seat, and what records must they reach in order to keep their jobs? First, let's take a look at the guys that appear to be safe. Including Hawaii, which made a BCS Bowl appearance in the 2008 Sugar Bowl, there are 11 coaches entering their fourth seasons among BCS teams. The coaches that are safe are Bobby Petrino, Houston Nutt, Bo Pelini, Mike Sherman, Art Briles, and David Cutcliffe. What would it take for any of these coaches to be fired? Let's take a look.

Bobby Petrino is coming off a 10-win season and Sugar Bowl appearance and has a positive win gain of 2. A seven-win season could have some Razorback fans angry given their high expectations and could be enough to force Petrino out of town. Petrino has Arkansas on the upswing and many would not be shocked if they are in the hunt for the SEC West title late in the season.

Houston Nutt is coming off a disastrous 4-8 season, but his first two seasons at Mississippi included two 9-4 campaigns. If Nutt can only muster a three-win season, he may be packing his bags out of Mississippi. However, his team is expected to improve upon last year's miserable record.

Bo Pelini has gone 9-4, 10-4, and 10-4 in his first three seasons. He has a positive win gain of five, so it would take about a five-win season to get him out of town. Not gonna happen.

Mike Sherman is coming off a successful 9-4 season and Texas A&M is considered by many a dark horse candidate to win the Big 12, and even make a run at the national title. Sherman has a positive win gain of 2, so barring a season where he only wins six games, he should be safe.

Art Briles has brought optimism to the Baylor program by recruiting blue-chip players like quarterback Robert Griffin. After posting consecutive 4-8 seasons in his first two years, Briles finally broke out with a 7-6 campaign in 2010. This year, his Baylor squad is expected to be a middle-of-the pack team capable of competing with almost everyone on its schedule. Unless Baylor reverts to another four-win season, Briles should come back to the lead an emerging Baylor program.

David Cutcliffe inherited a one-win program at Duke and has since gone 4-8, 5-7, and 3-9. He has a positive win gain of 2, so unless he posts a one-win season, which he won't, he'll be safe to coach at Duke for another season and hopefully take the perennially lowly Duke football team to a bowl game.

We now come to the five coaches that are on the hot seat heading into their fourth season. You might be surprised to see the first coach on this list.

Paul Johnson brought the option attack from Navy to Georgia Tech and was widely successful in his first season, capturing coach of the year honors for the Yellow Jackets. In his second season, his team won the ACC Championship. Then came the third season and an ugly 6-7 campaign. After three seasons, Johnson has a negative win gain of -1. It is very likely that another six-win campaign at Georgia Tech, along with recent NCAA sanctions, would be enough for Johnson's exit. Johnson needs at least a seven-win season to make an argument for keeping his job.

Dabo Swinney is actually only entering his third full season as head coach, after taking over Tommy Bowden midseason in 2008 and going 4-3 the rest of the way. In his second season, he led the Tigers to the ACC Championship game where Clemson lost to Georgia Tech. But last season the Tigers reverted to 6-7, despite a very talented roster. There's a lot of pressure this season for Swinney to make Clemson competitive again, and he needs an eight-win season to keep his job.

Greg McMackin is coming off a 10-win season at Hawaii, so he should be a lock to keep his job after his fourth season, right? Wrong. His first two seasons, McMackin went 7-7 and 6-7, before his 10-game breakthrough. McMackin needs to show that a 10-win season was no fluke and also at least another seven-win season to keep his job.

Rick Neuheisel has gone 4-8, 7-6, and 4-8 at UCLA and was expected to compete with neighboring Southern Cal. Ouch, that hasn't even come close to happening. He needs to win at least seven games -- prior to a bowl game -- to have a good shot at keeping his job.

Paul Wulff has gone 2-11, 1-11, and 2-10 in three seasons at Washington St. I don't see any silver lining here, but if he can somehow win at least six games to make a case for keeping his job. It will take a seven-win season to absolutely keep his job. But even that might be asking for too much.

Among coaches entering their fifth season, Nick Saban, Mark Dantonio, and Tom O'Brien are safe. But Dennis Erickson at Arizona St. needs at least eight wins -- prior to a bowl game -- given ASU's high expectations this season and the fact that the Erickson era has been a major disappointment following a 10-win inaugural season.