AP Preseason vs. Final Polls

When it comes to picking a champion prior to a season beginning, it makes sense to stick with the prohibitive favorite. But if one is trying to pick a national champion, the AP Poll can lend a good framework with some exceptions. Take a look at the preseason Top 10 poll from the 2010 season. There were two teams, Florida and Texas, that started the season ranked in the Top 5 but that did not even finish in the Top 25. Texas finished with a 5-7 record. Nebraska, Virginia Tech, and Iowa finished outside of the Top 10, with Virginia Tech finishing 16th, Nebraska 20th, and Iowa outside of the rankings. So which teams managed to finish in the Top 10 that started in the AP Top 10? Alabama (1st to 10th), Ohio State (2nd to 5th), Boise State (3rd to 9th), TCU (6th to 2nd), and Oklahoma (7th to 6th). Two of the teams that started the season in the Top 10 finished the season in the Top 5. 

AP 2010 Preseason Top 10 Poll

1	Alabama (54)	0-0	1491
2	Ohio State (3)	0-0	1400
3	Boise State (1)	0-0	1336
4	Florida	0-0	1237
5	Texas (1)	0-0	1223
6	TCU	0-0	1160
7	Oklahoma (1)	0-0	1104
8	Nebraska	0-0	1033
9	Iowa	0-0	1007
10	Virginia Tech	0-0	973

   
AP 2010 Final Top 10 Poll 

1	Auburn (56)	14-0	1472
2	TCU (3)	13-0	1392
3	Oregon	12-1	1379
4	Stanford	12-1	1300
5	Ohio State	12-1	1220
6	Oklahoma	12-2	1108
7	Wisconsin	11-2	1055
8	LSU	11-2	1051
9	Boise State	12-1	1031
10	Alabama	10-3	961

Now let's look at where three teams that finished in the Top 5 that did not start in the Top 10, started in the preseason rankings. Auburn won the national championship and was ranked 22nd in the AP Preseason, Oregon finished third and started 11th, and Stanford finished 4th while starting unranked.
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Remarkably, out of the teams that started in the Top 10 in the 2009 season, seven finished in the Top 10. And of the teams to finish in the Top 5, four of them started in the Top 10.


AP 2009 Preseason Top 10 Poll

1	Florida (58)	0-0	1498
2	Texas (2)	0-0	1424
3	Oklahoma	0-0	1370
4	USC	0-0	1313
5	Alabama	0-0	1156
6	Ohio State	0-0	1113
7	Virginia Tech	0-0	1054
8	Ole Miss	0-0	1047
9	Oklahoma State	0-0	989
9	Penn State	0-0	989

AP 2009 Final Top 10 Poll

1	Alabama (60)	14-0	1500
2	Texas	13-1	1399
3	Florida	13-1	1370
4	Boise State	14-0	1366
5	Ohio State	11-2	1224
6	TCU	12-1	1163
7	Iowa	11-2	1126
8	Cincinnati	12-1	1060
9	Penn State	11-2	1016
10	Virginia Tech	10-3	953

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Of the teams to begin in the Top 10 in 2008, only four finished in the Top 10. Three of the teams in the final Top 5 began the season in the Top 10. For the most part it seems as if the AP Poll does a good job of pegging a few elite teams, but misses on surprise teams and other teams that are simply overrated. Of the past three AP Polls, two teams from the Top 4 have played in the BCS Championship Game, meaning that in the past three years you had a greater chance of looking outside of the Top 4 to find a national title game participant than in looking in the Top 4. However, look at the Top 5, and in the past three years, 4 of the six participants have started in the Top 5. 


AP 2008 Preseason Top 10 Poll

1	Georgia (22)	0-0	1528
2	Ohio State (21)	0-0	1506
3	USC (12)	0-0	1490
4	Oklahoma (4)	0-0	1444
5	Florida (6)	0-0	1415
6	Missouri	0-0	1266
7	LSU	0-0	1135
8	West Virginia	0-0	1116
9	Clemson	0-0	1105
10	Auburn	0-0	968

AP 2008 Final Top 10 Poll

1	Florida (48)	13-1	1606
2	Utah (16)	13-0	1519
3	USC (1)	12-1	1481
4	Texas	12-1	1478
5	Oklahoma	12-2	1391
6	Alabama	12-2	1264
7	TCU	11-2	1193
8	Penn State	11-2	1153
9	Ohio State	10-3	1013
10	Oregon	10-3	997