Days Off to the National Title Game

50 off-days until the big stage is a bit much. i.e. 41-14

Building off of my previous post, I looked at the "true" national title games since 1980 to see what impact the number of days off had on the title game participants. What I mean by "true" is the one bowl game that would determine the national title winner, essentially a #1 vs. #2 matchup.

There were instances when if one team lost in a bowl game, then another team had the opportunity to win the title as in 1997 when Nebraska went undefeated and won the national title, and when Penn State also went undefeated but finished 2nd in both polls. Unfortunately, Penn State and Nebraska did not face each other in a "true" title game.

There are also instances as in 1983 when 5th ranked Miami defeated #1 Nebraska in the Orange Bowl and won the national title because of losses suffered by the teams ranked above them. Though the winner of the 1983 matchup resulted in the national title winner, it was not a "true" title game because outcomes outside of the game factored into the national title.

Here's what I found:

1983 Sugar Bowl - Penn State (36 days off) vs. Georgia (35 days off)

1987 Fiesta Bowl - Penn State (41 days off) vs. Miami (36 days off)

1988 Orange Bowl - Oklahoma (41 days off) vs. Miami (26 days off)

1993 Sugar Bowl - Miami (34 days off) vs. Alabama (26 days off)

1994 Orange Bowl - Nebraska (36 days off) vs. Florida State (35 days off) 

1995 Fiesta Bowl - Nebraska (39 days off) vs. Florida (30 days off)

The research was disappointing because dating back to 1980 from the first BCS game in 1998, there were only six instances in which the numbers 1 and 2 teams met for the national title. The data showed that in the six instances when #1 went up against #2, there was an even split between teams with more or less off-days. I would consider the 1983 Sugar Bowl insignificant in that Penn State had just one more day off than Georgia, but I must stick to my requirements.
However, to add on to a previous stat, since 1980 when teams have a difference of seven or more off-days in "true" national title games, the team with fewer days off has an 8-3 record. The sample size is too small for us to consider this significant, but perhaps there is something to having too many off days.
Going back to my first post regarding Ohio State, I still believe Florida was the superior team (I think that was clear considering the outcome). However, the 50 off-days that the Buckeyes had were the most of any team competing in the national title game in the last 31 years, at least. And when we consider our previous stat, it could be that they started the game at a disadvantage. I have to admit while I believe Florida was without a doubt the better team, I don't think Florida was 41-14 better, know what I mean?
I believe that the advent of conference title games for the Big 10 and the Pac 12 will make their elite teams better prepared for bowl games with national title implications. 

Days Off Before the BCS National Championship Game

The BCS Trophy

I'm going to come clean. I am a Florida Gators fan. It's where I went to school and where I did a lot of growing up. This blog isn't about that, but I wanted to let everyone know where I'm coming from. I was in my car the other day when out of nowhere I remembered how people said that the reason Ohio St. lost to Florida in the 2007 BCS title game was because of how many days off the Buckeyes had between their last game and the title game. I have a different hypothesis: the Gators were better.
But the argument some still make to this day sparked some curiosity in me. Does the length of time between a team's last game and the national title game have an impact on that team's performance? Since we are in the BCS era, I looked at BCS national title games in addition to bowl games that figured in split national titles. The numbers are interesting. Of the nine bowl games with national title implications where the teams had different days off between games, six of them were won by teams with fewer days off.
Of the three teams that had more days off and won, the only team that had a difference greater than eight games was.....Ohio State, which had 16 more off-days than Miami leading up to the 2003 title game. For the 2007 title game, Ohio State had 14 more off days than Florida. As evidenced, it seems as if teams that have many more off days tend to not do as well as teams that have played more recently. The data is very limited, however, as it only looks at nine games. I will expand the research in the days to come.
HOWEVER, when it comes to Ohio State, how can you argue one way for one game, but be unable to explain how they beat a potentially all-time great team in Miami in 2003 with many more days off? I'll say this much in Ohio State's defense, the 50 days off is the most - by five days - of any team to compete in the title game, and they did it twice. The average winning team had 35 days off between games, which seems to be about the optimal amount of time between games.
Here's an interesting stat from the research: When teams have a difference of seven or more off-days, the team with fewer days off has a 6-2 record. I will look at other games to increase sample size.

**Teams in bold are the winning teams when there was a difference in off-days
1999 BCS Title Game - Florida State (44 days off) vs. Tennessee (28 days off)
2000 BCS Title Game - Florida State (44 days off) vs. Virginia Tech (38 days off)
2001 BCS Title Game - Florida State (45 days off) vs. Oklahoma (31 days off)
2002 BCS Title Game - Nebraska (41 days off) vs. Miami (32 days off)
2003 BCS Title Game - Ohio State (42 days off) vs. Miami (26 days off)
2004 BCS Title Game - LSU (28 days off) vs. Oklahoma (28 days off)
2004 Rose Bowl - Michigan (40 days off) vs. USC (25 days off)
2005 BCS Title Game - USC (30 days off) vs. Oklahoma (30 days off)
2006 BCS Title Game - Texas (31 days off) vs. USC (31 days off)
2007 BCS Title Game - Ohio State (50 days off) vs. Florida (36 days off)
2008 BCS Title Game - Ohio State (50 days off) vs. LSU (36 days off)
2009 BCS Title Game - Florida (32 days off) vs. Oklahoma (32 days off)
2010 BCS Title Game - Alabama (32 days off) vs. Texas (32 days off)
2011 BCS Title Game - Auburn (36 days off) vs. Oregon (36 days off)
2012 BCS Title Game - Alabama (44 days off) vs. LSU (36 days off)

National Champion Won't Come from the SEC

Landry Jones has all the makings of a national champion.

There's nothing I can write to justify this. It's not to say that the best football played won't be in the SEC, but it is highly unlikely that for the sixth straight year the national champion will come out of the same conference. The top two teams in the SEC will again be Alabama and Florida. Nick Saban, aka "Evil Genius," will have his team prepared to devastate just about everyone that comes across its path because of its  defense. As much flack as Alabam took last year for its inconsistent defense, the Crimson Tide still finished ranked fifth in the nation in total defense. What the Crimson Tide are underestimating is the loss of first-rounders Mark Ingram and Julio Jones. You simply don't replace those guys, no matter how good you think the replacements are going to be. As you will see, you also can't just replace an upperclassman quarterback like Greg McElroy either.  

The Gators are a bit of an enigma. Many people are assuming that this will be a transition year, so the expectations have been lowered in Gainesville. I believe the transition year took place last year, where quarterback John Brantley struggled mightily through a spread offense that just wasn't working and was destroying any success its defense had. Charlie Weis should immediately improve the Gator offense, and the recruits from UF's monster 2010 recruiting class will bear fruit this year. While the Gators don't quite seem to be title contenders this year, I'll explain later why I'd pick them over the Crimson Tide to get to the national title game.

As good as Alabama is going to be, and as good as UF has the potential to be, the national champion is going to come out of either the Pac-10 or the Big 12 this year. That's because the teams to beat this year are Oregon, Oklahoma, and Stanford. The biggest reason? Their quarterbacks. Going back to 1998, the year the first BCS Championship Game was played, can we find a common denominator between all the winning teams? Yes. All the winning quarterbacks were either juniors or seniors.  Let's list them (because I like lists), along with the quarterbacks from the losing team:

1998 Tennesse (Tee Martin, junior) vs. Florida State (Marcus Outzen, redshirt sophomore)
1999 Florida State (Chris Weinke, junior) vs. Virginia Tech (Michael Vick, redshirt freshman)
2000 Oklahoma (Josh Heupel, senior) vs. Florida State (Chris Weinke, senior)
2001 Miami (Ken Dorsey, junior) vs. Nebraska (Eric Crouch, senior)
2002 Ohio St. (Craig Krenzel, junior) vs. Miami (Ken Dorsey, senior)
2003 LSU (Matt Mauck, junior) vs. Oklahoma (Jason White, senior)
2004 USC (Matt Leinart, junior) vs. Oklahoma (Jason White, senior, 6th year)
2005 Texas (Vince Young, senior) vs. USC (Matt Leinart, senior)
2006 Florida (Chris Leak, senior) vs. Ohio St. (Troy Smith, senior)
2007 LSU (Matt Flynn, senior) vs. Ohio St. (Todd Boeckman, senior, 5th year)
2008 Florida (Tim Tebow, junior) vs. Oklahoma (Sam Bradford, sophomore)
2009 Alabama (Greg McElroy, junior) vs. Texas (Colt McCoy, senior)
2010 Auburn (Cam Newton, junior) vs. Oregon (Darron Thomas, redshirt sophomore)

What can we take out of this list? Out of the last 26 teams to have played for the BCS National Championship, 24 out 26 teams had quarterbacks with at least three years of experience (including redshirt years) with the lone exceptions being No. 1 overall picks Sam Bradford and Michael Vick, and 22 out of 26 teams had either a junior or senior starting quarterback. Interestingly, nine out of the 13 winning quarterbacks were juniors, with five times a junior beating a senior, and no instances of a senior beating a junior. This year Oregon enters the season with Darron Thomas as a redshirt junior, Oklahoma with Landry Jones as a redshirt junior, and Stanford with Andrew Luck as a, you guessed it, redshirt junior.

It's not to say that teams are winning championships because their quarterbacks are either junior or seniors, but I think it says that teams need -- with exceptions -- a quarterback with experience to guide them through a national championship season. Once teams reach the BCS title game all bets are off.

So let's go back to the SEC. If I had to pick the SEC Champion right now, I'd probably pick Alabama, but if I had to pick a team more likely to reach the national championship game, then I'd have to say Florida. Alabama is still trying to decide whether to start redshirt freshman Phillip Sims or redshirt sophomore A.J. McCarron. Florida in the meantime will be fighting its way with Brantley, a fifth-year senior. I'm aware teams need more than just a quarterback to win national championships. They also need great defenses, solid offensive lines, experience across the entire team, superior talent, and a little bit of luck. It's just that you can't cut corners at the quarterback position.

Along with Oregon, Stanford, and Oklahoma to appear in the national title game here are a few darkhorses and some other favorites to get into the national title game:

Boise State (If they can go undefeated with victories against Georgia, TCU, and San Diego St., then I'm all for letting Boise State play in the BCS National Championship Game. Senior quarterback Kellen Moore will be leading the way).
Florida (Urban Meyer's last two recruiting classes were epic and those players are ready to show what they're made of. Brantley has a great deal of talent and should flourish under Charlie Weis)
Florida St. (Redshirt junior EJ Manuel is very good and the Seminoles are on the way up with a lot of talent. Second-year coaches have a knack for having great success at their schools, i.e. Jim Tressel, Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Bob Stoops, etc.)
Miami (a team loaded with talent and experience, and only if Jacory Harris wins quarterback competition)
Notre Dame (Brian Kelly is entering his second season as head coach with a talented nucleus of players and senior quarterback Dayne Crist leading the way)
Wisconsin (Transfer Russell Wilson, a redshirt senior, is a talent and with Ohio St. on the way down, Wisconsin has a chance to capitalize on an undefeated season)