National Champion Won't Come from the SEC

Landry Jones has all the makings of a national champion.

There's nothing I can write to justify this. It's not to say that the best football played won't be in the SEC, but it is highly unlikely that for the sixth straight year the national champion will come out of the same conference. The top two teams in the SEC will again be Alabama and Florida. Nick Saban, aka "Evil Genius," will have his team prepared to devastate just about everyone that comes across its path because of its  defense. As much flack as Alabam took last year for its inconsistent defense, the Crimson Tide still finished ranked fifth in the nation in total defense. What the Crimson Tide are underestimating is the loss of first-rounders Mark Ingram and Julio Jones. You simply don't replace those guys, no matter how good you think the replacements are going to be. As you will see, you also can't just replace an upperclassman quarterback like Greg McElroy either.  

The Gators are a bit of an enigma. Many people are assuming that this will be a transition year, so the expectations have been lowered in Gainesville. I believe the transition year took place last year, where quarterback John Brantley struggled mightily through a spread offense that just wasn't working and was destroying any success its defense had. Charlie Weis should immediately improve the Gator offense, and the recruits from UF's monster 2010 recruiting class will bear fruit this year. While the Gators don't quite seem to be title contenders this year, I'll explain later why I'd pick them over the Crimson Tide to get to the national title game.

As good as Alabama is going to be, and as good as UF has the potential to be, the national champion is going to come out of either the Pac-10 or the Big 12 this year. That's because the teams to beat this year are Oregon, Oklahoma, and Stanford. The biggest reason? Their quarterbacks. Going back to 1998, the year the first BCS Championship Game was played, can we find a common denominator between all the winning teams? Yes. All the winning quarterbacks were either juniors or seniors.  Let's list them (because I like lists), along with the quarterbacks from the losing team:

1998 Tennesse (Tee Martin, junior) vs. Florida State (Marcus Outzen, redshirt sophomore)
1999 Florida State (Chris Weinke, junior) vs. Virginia Tech (Michael Vick, redshirt freshman)
2000 Oklahoma (Josh Heupel, senior) vs. Florida State (Chris Weinke, senior)
2001 Miami (Ken Dorsey, junior) vs. Nebraska (Eric Crouch, senior)
2002 Ohio St. (Craig Krenzel, junior) vs. Miami (Ken Dorsey, senior)
2003 LSU (Matt Mauck, junior) vs. Oklahoma (Jason White, senior)
2004 USC (Matt Leinart, junior) vs. Oklahoma (Jason White, senior, 6th year)
2005 Texas (Vince Young, senior) vs. USC (Matt Leinart, senior)
2006 Florida (Chris Leak, senior) vs. Ohio St. (Troy Smith, senior)
2007 LSU (Matt Flynn, senior) vs. Ohio St. (Todd Boeckman, senior, 5th year)
2008 Florida (Tim Tebow, junior) vs. Oklahoma (Sam Bradford, sophomore)
2009 Alabama (Greg McElroy, junior) vs. Texas (Colt McCoy, senior)
2010 Auburn (Cam Newton, junior) vs. Oregon (Darron Thomas, redshirt sophomore)

What can we take out of this list? Out of the last 26 teams to have played for the BCS National Championship, 24 out 26 teams had quarterbacks with at least three years of experience (including redshirt years) with the lone exceptions being No. 1 overall picks Sam Bradford and Michael Vick, and 22 out of 26 teams had either a junior or senior starting quarterback. Interestingly, nine out of the 13 winning quarterbacks were juniors, with five times a junior beating a senior, and no instances of a senior beating a junior. This year Oregon enters the season with Darron Thomas as a redshirt junior, Oklahoma with Landry Jones as a redshirt junior, and Stanford with Andrew Luck as a, you guessed it, redshirt junior.

It's not to say that teams are winning championships because their quarterbacks are either junior or seniors, but I think it says that teams need -- with exceptions -- a quarterback with experience to guide them through a national championship season. Once teams reach the BCS title game all bets are off.

So let's go back to the SEC. If I had to pick the SEC Champion right now, I'd probably pick Alabama, but if I had to pick a team more likely to reach the national championship game, then I'd have to say Florida. Alabama is still trying to decide whether to start redshirt freshman Phillip Sims or redshirt sophomore A.J. McCarron. Florida in the meantime will be fighting its way with Brantley, a fifth-year senior. I'm aware teams need more than just a quarterback to win national championships. They also need great defenses, solid offensive lines, experience across the entire team, superior talent, and a little bit of luck. It's just that you can't cut corners at the quarterback position.

Along with Oregon, Stanford, and Oklahoma to appear in the national title game here are a few darkhorses and some other favorites to get into the national title game:

Boise State (If they can go undefeated with victories against Georgia, TCU, and San Diego St., then I'm all for letting Boise State play in the BCS National Championship Game. Senior quarterback Kellen Moore will be leading the way).
Florida (Urban Meyer's last two recruiting classes were epic and those players are ready to show what they're made of. Brantley has a great deal of talent and should flourish under Charlie Weis)
Florida St. (Redshirt junior EJ Manuel is very good and the Seminoles are on the way up with a lot of talent. Second-year coaches have a knack for having great success at their schools, i.e. Jim Tressel, Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Bob Stoops, etc.)
Miami (a team loaded with talent and experience, and only if Jacory Harris wins quarterback competition)
Notre Dame (Brian Kelly is entering his second season as head coach with a talented nucleus of players and senior quarterback Dayne Crist leading the way)
Wisconsin (Transfer Russell Wilson, a redshirt senior, is a talent and with Ohio St. on the way down, Wisconsin has a chance to capitalize on an undefeated season)